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MAY 11,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:06 P.M. ET: 

WELL EXCUSE ME! – The new Muslim mayor of London needs a lesson in diplomacy.  From the Independent:   Sadiq Khan has offered to help Hillary Clinton defeat Donald Trump – pledging his successful campaign as a “template” to hers.  Mr Khan, the new Mayor of London, said he had successfully beaten the Conservatives’ “Donald Trump approach” to elections in last weeks’ vote.  “I think what we’ve shown — and I hope it’s a lesson that Hillary and others in American take on board, hope does ‘trump’ fear, forgive the pun,” he told reporters at the capital’s City Hall, according to the Politico website.  May we remind his honor that we don't require outside help to hold elections, and that his interference in our internal affairs is not appreciated.

THE TROUBLED RIO OLYMPICS – The Rio Olympics start August 5th, but they are mired in fear, warnings, and potential tragedy.  From Fox:   Brazil soccer great Rivaldo is telling tourists to stay away from the Olympics in Rio de Janeiro because of the danger of endemic violence.  Rivaldo posted the warning on his Instagram account and alluded to the case of a 17-year-old woman killed on Saturday in a shootout.  "Things are getting uglier here every day," Rivaldo wrote. "I advise everyone with plans to visit Brazil for the Olympics in Rio — to stay home. You'll be putting your life at risk here. This is without even speaking about the state of public hospitals and all the Brazilian political mess. Only God can change the situation in our Brazil."  This is only the tip of the proverbial iceberg.  The waters around Rio, required for the long-distance swimmers, are hopelessly polluted.  Pledges to clean them up have not been kept.  There is growing disease.  Some scientists are warning that illnesses acquired at the Olympics could spread around the world.  The dangers will become a major story as the games approach, although there will be serious and irresponsible attempts to minimize them.  Olympics mean big money, and you know what talks.  The well-being of the athletes should be the foremost concern, and it isn't.

LATEST SOCIAL GRIEVANCE – From heatstreet:    The University of Minnesota’s School of Public Health was a lot less healthy this week.  Tovar’s talk, entitled “Dispelling Myths: Fat, Fatphobia, and Challenging Social Stereotypes,” was designed to help students understand that “fat phobia” is rampant in a “white, heteronormative society” that is looking to actively oppress people with larger body types. Society’s bias against fat people is, apparently, a form of bigotry and discrimination, evident in everything from sexual preferences to the size of seats on public transportation.  She even, reportedly, compared society’s anti-fat culture to so-called “rape culture,” and chastised society for its obsession with what she termed “thin privilege.”  According to Tovar, the students, who study public health (at one of the top 10 schools for public health), shouldn’t push people they deem overweight to shed pounds, even if it’s better overall for health. “Weight loss is not a realistic goal for most people,” she said, declaring that exercise and diet are “social constructs.” She implored her audience to “lose hate, not weight” and rebel against “diet culture.” (Diets are, of course, just a tool of the hetero-normative Patriarchy.)  I'm so glad this was cleared up.  I will never again feel guilty digging into a hot-fudge sundae.  Free at last, free at last. 

May 11, 2016       Permalink

OH DEAR, OH DEAR, ANOTHER LITTLE PROBLEM WITH "SETTLED SCIENCE" – I DON'T KNOW WHAT I SHALL DO – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:  From Breitbart: 

Between 2010 and 2013 residents of the states surrounding the Great Lakes were told that climate change was permanently altering their environment and the record low water levels being recorded in the lakes may be the new normal. But now, only three years later, news reports are worried about beach erosion because the lakes have rebounded to record high levels of water.

This week, throughout the Chicago media landscape, as well as in reports in Michigan and Wisconsin, stories about a loss of swimming areas on public beaches are filling airwaves and newspaper pages. Residents and city officials are warning citizens that water levels in Lake Michigan and the other lakes are so high that the shallow swimming areas have been reduced as the water rises. Reports are also express worry over beach erosion and fears that the rising water is a danger to other infrastructure like roads.

In Chicago, DNAInfro.com, for instance, notes that water levels have risen a whopping four feet since 2013 and the new water is “swallowing up beaches.”

According to the Army Corps of Engineers, the water has risen 15 inches higher than this time last year and may rise another six inches before the summer heat starts its cycle of evaporation.

And...

In 2012 National Geographic sonorously warned that the “climate-related trend” was on the verge of laying waste to the region.

Crain’s Detroit was also writing in 2013 that communities living on the edges of the region’s monumental bodies of water were going to have to “adapt” to the new normal of climate change.

Naturally, far left sources were absolutely sure that global warming was drying up the lakes. In 2013 far left website Think Progress worried its readers with claims that climate change was “damaging” the lakes and would present “implications for the environment and the economy.”

The Natural Resource Defense Council even contemplated lawsuits to prevent cities on the lakes from tapping into them as a source of water.

COMMENT:  I'm sure there's some explanation that corresponds to Barack Obama's scientific thinking.  Ben Rhodes will find it. 

In the meantime, of course, we'll be asked to spend trillions of dollars fighting the plague, the heartbreak, the personal embarrassment of climate change.  Just make the check out to the UN.

May 11, 2016        Permalink

IRAN THREATENS – AT 11:08 A.M. ET:  Just yesterday, Grand Admiral Kerry, our secretary of state, was encouraging European firms to do business with Iran.  After all, why not build up an enemy of the West?  Makes sense, doesn't it?  Someday there will be statues of Kerry, with inscriptions about the greatness of his statesmanship.  The statues will be in Tehran.  Today, we hear this from Iran:

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) threatened to "drown" any US warships approaching Iran, a top general said Tuesday, according to state-controlled media.

“We have informed Americans that their presence in the Persian Gulf is an absolute evil,” Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi stated to state media. “Americans are aware that Iran would destroy their warships if they take a wrong measure in the region.”

He further threatened that the US would "lose control of everything" by drawing others into Middle-East affairs.

"There has never been normal conditions in the Persian Gulf and Americans can feel the presence of IRGC navy forces at any spot,” he added. “Iran’s great power has forced US to consider creation of deterrent capabilities.”

Fadavi also boasted that the West remains unaware of Iran's alleged naval capabilities, including surface-to-air missiles.

If we are unaware of Iran's naval capabilities, then maybe we're also unaware of parts of its nuclear program.

The threats surface just days after top White House adviser Ben Rhodes revealed the US deliberately misled the American public about the 2015 Iran deal.

While the public was led to believe talks began after the election of "moderate" Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, talks with Islamists in the country began far earlier, he said.

In November of 2013, it was revealed that a preliminary deal between Iran and the West was made possible due to secret talks that the United States and Iran held for more than half a year and were authorized by US President Barack Obama himself. Those discussions were kept hidden even from America's closest friends, including its five negotiating partners and from Israel.

COMMENT:  Yes, we know about Ben Rhodes, whose brother is the president of CBS News.  And we know about White House deception about an issue involving millions of lives, the Iran nuclear program.

I'd like to see Congressional hearings on the status of our naval forces near Iran.  I think it's right to worry that our ships, including supercarriers, may be more vulnerable than we think.  We might also worry that Iran does indeed have weapons we don't know about.

But, hey, let's trade with Iran.  Build up their economy.  The send Kerry and his boss to get the mental help they need.

May 11, 2016        Permalink

THE DOWN BALLOT – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:  That refers to all the races below the presidency, appearing on the November ballot.  We're starting to get early indications of whether the Trump candidacy will have much effect on the result.  From The Hill:

Senate races in three battleground states — Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania — are nearly deadlocked, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.

In Ohio, incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R) has 42 percent support, trailing Democratic opponent Ted Strickland, who has 43 percent. The poll sampled 1,042 Ohio voters and has a margin of error of three points.

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Pat Toomey (R) has a one-point edge over Democrat Katie McGinty, 45 percent to 44 percent. The poll sampled 1,077 Pennsylvania voters and has a margin of error of three points.

In Florida, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Fla.) leads all five Republican candidates by between one and six points.

The Republicans running are Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), Rep. David Jolly (R-Fla.), Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, and businessmen Carlos Beruff and Todd Wilcox.

The Florida contest is a race to replace retiring Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). The poll sampled 1,051 Florida voters and has a margin of error of three points.

COMMENT:  Actually, there's nothing shocking here.  We knew long ago that all three races would be close.  Two of the three (Pennsylvania and Ohio) feature Republican incumbents fighting for re-election in swing states.  The third (Florida) features a race for the seat left open by Marco Rubio.  These are not easy states for either party. 

But I certainly don't see the devastating effects predicted if Trump moves toward victory in the Republican presidential nomination race.  It will take months before these races shake out and we see real trends.

May 11,  2016     Permalink

MAY 10,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

PRIMARIES – Donald Trump decisively won the West Virginia and Nebraska Republican primaries today.  Ted Cruz had said during the day that he might get back into the race if he won Nebraska.  He did not, and should now gracefully withdraw, saving his dignity, and vowing to fight another year.  He's a young man, only 45, and if he runs at the same age Hillary is running, he'll be making the election of 2040.  Unless something truly weird happens, Trump will be the nominee.  Sales of etiquette books should rise, by necessity.

AND THE DEMS – In a further embarrassment for Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders won both the West Virginia and Nebraska primaries, winning Nebraska 57-43% and West Virginia 51-36%.  Because Democrats divide delegates in proportion to the vote, and neither state was assigned a huge number of delegates, Sanders's net gain will be only a handful of delegates.  There's really no statistical way for him to overcome Hillary, but his string of victories is embarrassing to the frontrunner.  It is a rebuke from her own party.  However, it's been pointed out that Bernie has not really been fully vetted, as he was never given much of a chance to win.  If Hillary really started attacking him, his numbers would probably deteriorate somewhat.

STUNNER – A new Reuters poll provides evidence that Donald Trump, whether we like him or not, won't be any pushover in November.  Hillary gets 41.3%, Trump gets 40.0% and 18.7% are undecided or will refuse to vote.  The battle will probably be won or lost among the undecideds.  But the contest is much closer than pundits have imagined.  This is the second major poll in as many days to predict a tight race.  While it's still very early in the campaign, and polls are not necessarily predictive, we would have expected Hillary to be much further ahead.

May 10,  2016     Permalink

PATHETIC – AT 12:18 P.M. ET:  A very sad picture of young American males.  From Breitbart:

Nearly one in six young men (between the ages of 18-34) in the U.S. were either jobless or incarcerated in 2014, according to a new government report. It details a striking amount of male alienation that has been on the rise since the 1980s.

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), out of the 38 million young men in the U.S. in 2014, 16 percent were jobless (5 million or 13 percent) or incarcerated (1 million or 3 percent). The share of young men without a job or in prison has increased substantially since 1980, when just 11 percent of young men fit into either category.

CBO highlights that the level of joblessness and incarceration varies based on young men’s educational attainment. The less they have, the more likely they are to be jobless or incarcerated. The rates also varied among racial and ethnic groups. In 2014 young black men were about twice as likely to be jobless or incarcerated than white or Hispanic young men were. The disparity was largely due, however, to higher rates of incarceration among young black men.

Economic, policy, and skill-set changes contributed to the the large increase in joblessness and incarceration from 1980 to 2014, CBO said.

On the economic side in particular, CBO pointed to the recent recession, technological advances, more women entering the workforce and such debate-inspiring issues as outsourcing and low-skilled immigration.

COMMENT:  We can debate the causes, but the picture is terrible.  I guess hope 'n change didn't result in much.

May 10, 2016        Permalink

DID HE GET THE MESSAGE? – AT 9:57 A.M. ET:  Confirming earlier rumors, the White House announces that President Obama will become the first sitting president to visit Hiroshima.  But apparently he's gotten the message from wiser Americans that certain subjects are off limits.  From The New York Times: 

WASHINGTON — President Obama will become the first sitting American president to visit Hiroshima, Japan, the White House announced on Tuesday, making a fraught stop this month at the site where the United States used an atomic bomb at the end of World War II.

The visit, hotly debated in the White House for months as the president planned his coming trip to Vietnam and Japan, carries weighty symbolism for Mr. Obama, who is loath to be seen as apologizing for that chapter in American history.

“He will not revisit the decision to use the atomic bomb at the end of World War II,” Benjamin J. Rhodes, his deputy national security adviser for strategic communication, said in a blog post on Medium. “Instead, he will offer a forward-looking vision focused on our shared future.”

“In making this visit, the president will shine a spotlight on the tremendous and devastating human toll of war,” Mr. Rhodes added in the blog post.

Mr. Obama’s critics have often accused him of making an “apology tour” during the first year of his presidency, pointing to his travels to the Middle East and Europe during that period, when he gave a series of speeches acknowledging past misdeeds by the United States and seeking to rebuild ties frayed at the end of the Bush administration.

But the president’s advisers say a trip to Hiroshima is in keeping with his emphasis on reducing the spread of nuclear weapons, including through a deal completed last year to lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for new restrictions on Tehran’s ability to develop a nuclear bomb.

COMMENT:  Now let's hope that Obama sticks to the plan and doesn't say something truly foolish while in Hiroshima, something his leftist base would probably favor.  No one denies the horror of the atomic bomb, but using it against Japan ended World War II within a few days, probably saving the lives of millions. 

May 10, 2016       Permalink

STUNNING NUMBERS – AT 9:45 A.M. ET:  Some Republicans fear that a Trump nomination guarantees a disaster for the GOP in November.  But does it?  From Fox: 

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are locked in a tight race across the country’s most critical battleground states, according to new polling that challenges assumptions the presumptive Republican presidential nominee would enter a general election battle against the former secretary of state as the underdog.

The Quinnipiac University Poll tested a Clinton-Trump match-up in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The two were close in every state, with Trump even edging Clinton in Ohio, 43-39 percent.

In Florida, Clinton led Trump 43-42 percent. The Democratic primary front-runner held the same 1-point edge in Pennsylvania as well.

“Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, said in a statement, also noting that Trump at this point is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012.

The polling is still just a snapshot. Most national polls continue to show Clinton leading Trump in a general election match-up, and the overall electoral map is widely thought to favor Democrats in November.

But, as noted by Quinnipiac, no candidate since 1960 has won the race for the White House without winning at least two of the three swing states tested here.

COMMENT:  How could this be possible when we're told Trump has a 70-percent disapproval among women, and horrible numbers among blacks and Hispanics?  I don't know.  One wonders if those numbers may reflect loaded questions in polls.

Bernie Sanders does better than Hillary across the board, but not by that much.  And remember that Trump and the GOP haven't targeted Sanders, haven't defined him.  If, by some chance, Sanders seriously challenges Clinton for the nomination, the result, say, of revelations from the FBI, Trump would go on the attack, and Bernie is vulnerable.

Polls this early in a general-election matchup have little significance, except to challenge the idea that Trump is an automatic disaster, and that he would automatically cost the Republicans the Senate or House, or both.

May 10,  2016     Permalink